The 2025 edition of Watches and Wonders, held in Geneva, offers a clear view of the current state of the luxury watch industry. The event, which runs at the Palexpo convention center near the city’s airport, features major players like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Cartier showcasing their latest designs. Independent watchmakers also reveal their new creations, drawing interest from journalists, collectors, retailers, and fans worldwide.
While Switzerland continues to lead global luxury watchmaking, the industry is facing challenges after several years of growth during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, Swiss watch exports dropped by 2.8%, reaching 25.9 billion Swiss francs (about US$29.6 billion), according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. This decline was largely due to a more than 25% slump in China, which remains a critical market, including cities like Hong Kong and Macau. The slowdown has been linked to China’s housing crisis and high youth unemployment.
The early months of 2025 have shown mixed results. Swiss watch exports rose 4.1% year-on-year in January but fell by 8.2% in February, with weak performance continuing in China and Hong Kong. These figures have dampened hopes for a strong year, despite the buzz generated by new product launches at the fair.
Cyrille Vigneron, president of the Watches and Wonders Geneva Foundation, highlighted how recent global events have reshaped consumer behavior. He cited examples such as rising luxury spending in Dubai and Istanbul following the war in Ukraine, echoing China’s domestic consumption boost during pandemic travel restrictions. Vigneron emphasized that China’s stimulus measures will be crucial in reviving demand. Meanwhile, protectionist policies in the U.S. have added uncertainty to the luxury sector.
The industry also faces growing polarization. A few large groups now control much of the market. According to Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, the so-called “Big Four” – Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille – account for 47% of the market. Groups like Richemont, which owns Cartier, and Swatch Group, which owns Omega, also hold significant shares.
Despite the uncertain outlook, early signs from Watches and Wonders 2025 are positive. Both Vigneron and foundation CEO Matthieu Humair confirmed that registration numbers have surpassed those of previous years. The event will open to the public over the weekend, which may offer further insight into consumer sentiment for the year ahead.
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